I was asked to contribute to a fascinating article in the National Journal, a leading US political magazine, on Friday in response to the initially surprising news that John McCain is actually outspending Barack Obama on Google. Figures released by Nielsen Online show that McCain’s campaign purchased just over 7 million impressions via Google AdWords in June, compared to just over 1 million for Obama.

However, the really interesting stats are for spend on traditional banner advertising, where Obama is trouncing McCain. Obama invested in over 80 million impressions compared to just 16 million for McCain. Nielsen’s analysis shows that Obama’s banners have been deployed on popular portals such as Yahoo! and MSN and news sites such as CNN. The campaign also bought almost 2 million impressions on allrecipes.com, perhaps in an attempt to reach more of the women who voted for Clinton.  McCain, who is still distrusted by much of the Republican base, seems to have focussed his banner spending on conservative sites such as the National Review and Lucianne.com.

As pointed out in the article, the discrepancy in the investment between banners and search advertising by the two campaigns is most likely a result of financial expediency rather than deliberate strategy.  McCain has fewer resources and is therefore focusing these on more targeted and cheaper ads on Google. It’s difficult to tell from the outside the real degree of targeting by the Obama campaign in its use of banner advertising. It could be various ad-networks are being paid millions of dollars to simply get as many eye-balls as possible.

What is true is that the Republican campaign had had to play catch-up in effectively using the Internet as a campaigning tool and is learning fast.  McCain’s recent adverts portraying Obama as both Moses and a blonde bimbo and the now famous response by Paris Hilton, has meant McCain has overtaken Obama’s lead for YouTube viewers for the first time.

Analysis from Tubemogul.com shows McCain’s videos attracted more viewers than Obama’s for seven days in a row last week, and on 11 of the previous 14 days.  Maybe it’s time for Will.i.am to pen another ditty…perhaps featuring Paris’ much under appreciated musical talents?

So I was asked by PR Week on Monday for my views on Gordon Brown’s Ask the PM initiative on YouTube. This was the latest foray into the online world by Downing Street, following its recent embrace of Twitter. My assessment that Ask the PM “smacks of gimmickry and desperation” led the article and there was a clear consensus from other industry commentators, that this project was a typical case of ‘too little, too late’.

I had a couple of interesting conversations on Friday in response to the piece. These boiled down to the argument that as a Social Media evangelist I should have welcomed the initiative, however imperfect, as a step in the right direction. Sorry to disappoint.

I have come to a view, which has hardened in recent months, that high profile examples of digital tokenism such as Ask the PM, are actually devaluing the real potential of Social Media. They are feeding a scepticism which makes the pioneering work we are doing unnecessarily difficult.

A couple of years ago, the medium was the message when it came to organisations adopting Social Media. This was typified by those endless stories in the national press, with leading youth brands like IBM and PA Consulting opening virtual offices in Second Life. Today, the filter I always use when assessing Social Media initiatives, my own and others, is whether the communication objectives and creative approach are actually more interesting than the digital platform(s) being utilised.

Using this filter, Ask the PM just doesn’t cut it. It’s not a genuine attempt by Gordon Brown to reconnect and really start listening to a disillusioned electorate. His comment at the end of his welcome video, where he states, “I’ll be back to talk to you at some point…” betrays a total lack of understanding of the two-way conversation that Social Media enables. You may as well write a letter and stick it in the post - you’d probably get a quicker reply!

In my mind the YouTube channel, the Twitter feed and whatever online gimmick is announced next, is primarily about metaphor, the hope that some shiny digital zeitgeist will rub off on an increasingly lacklustre Prime Minister. Equally, it’s a clumsy attempt by the new Downing St communications team to ‘get with it’ and reduce the gaping void between their digital approach and that of the Opposition.

As I have been saying a lot this week in new business pitches, Social Media is not a magic wand. Ultimately whatever Stephen Carter and his team try to do, Gordon Brown at heart, will always remain an analogue politician in a digital age.

Neil McCormick at the Telegraph has written a great piece looking at the phenomenon of Will.i.am’s Yes, We Can video on YouTube in support of Barack Obama. The video has already attracted 13 million views with that number growing at a rate of 1 million hits a day.

However, Seth Finkelstein at the Guardian has a word of caution arguing that great online campaigns do not always translate into political success and it’s all too easy to conveniently forget Internet campaigns that haven’t worked. Having set the standard, Will.i.am is already spawning imitators like the No, You Can’t video below attacking John McCain.

It will be fascinating to watch whether the Republicans have the creativity and Internet-savvy to effectively retaliate.

6. PCTV wins the battle with IPTV
Early next year we are likely to see both 02 and Orange join the battle with BT Vision and others to displace the Sky, Virgin and Freeview set-top boxes in our living rooms. As they spend big to each attract at most a few hundred thousand subscribers, millions of consumers will instead top up their TV viewing online. The implications of the Kangaroo initiative, which will bring together the on-demand services from the BBC, ITV and Channel 4 shouldn’t be underestimated. Kangaroo has the potential to bring PCTV into the mainstream via a single application and EPG. But it will need to quickly become compatible with all those Vista enabled PCs people will have got for Christmas.

In fact one of 2007’s most exciting moves for both online broadcasting and social networking, was Bebo’s landmark deal with the likes of the BBC, Sky, Channel 4 and Endemol to allow users to embed TV programmes in their profiles. A fundamental shift in taking TV to specific communities rather than trying to attract specific communities to TV. The implications of the deal for much hyped but little used services like Joost should be keeping their investors awake at night.

Finally, as millions stream TV content to their desktops, the spotlight will again turn to the performance levels of broadband providers. Download limits and throttling connections will be exposed as the disingenuous excuses for poor service they really are. ISPs and telecoms companies will need to think carefully about where they direct their infrastructure investment, or face a very public consumer backlash.

7. DIY Social Networking
Want to create your own social networking site? Of course you do and so will everyone else, well maybe. As I wrote recently vertical social networks are gathering momentum. With so many categories currently un-catered for, it will be a boom year for the software companies providing off-the-shelf solutions. Many firms will also see the benefits of creating their own social networks as a replacement or as an alternative to expensive and cumbersome corporate intranets and extranets. Whether they will give their staff enough time to use them is of course another question.

8. Traditional media decline accelerates
David Crow at The Business has a great analysis on the seismic shifts in the media landscape this year and the likely developments in 2008. To reverse the general declines in newspaper circulations, more national newspapers will need to follow the example of the Daily Telegraph and invest in their digital operations. The amalgamation of the BBC’s offline and online news operations could lead to a decline in both the quantity and quality of online content, allowing other news organisations to catch-up. The Wall Street Journal liberated from a hefty subscription by Rupert Murdoch, will also be a new force to be reckoned with. Crow also looks ahead to the growth of DAB radio with Channel 4 launching a number of stations to compete directly with the BBC. He concludes by saying, “The firms that succeed in 2008 will be those that focus on the needs, desires and interests of their consumer in the contemporary marketplace – and discard their archaic, elitist prejudices born of a different era. For those still referred to as the “traditional” media, 2008 will be the make or break year.” Couldn’t agree with him more!

9. The Press Release’s condition becomes terminal
In response to the traditional media going increasingly digital, the demand from journalists for well packaged multimedia content will be stronger than ever before. The SMNR and Social Media Newsroom will become the industry standard for modern communication with press and bloggers. The days of four pages of double-spaced waffle will thankfully be nigh.

Google struggles with the forces of darkness

Once one of the most loved of internet brands, ordinary internet users will begin to reassess their warm relationship with Google. As with its recent announcement to obliterate Wikipedia, the brand will behave in a way that challenges Microsoft for its evil empire crown. While doing little to damage revenues at first, the loss of public goodwill will prompt a harder line from the competition authorities and legislators, curtailing the extent of Google’s long-term growth. In 2008, while its takeover of Skype gets through, its hostile bid for Apple is seen as a step too far.