The leading lights of the digital industry gathered in Soho last night for a Chinwag Live event tackling the contentious issue of Measuring Social Media. The expert panel included Alex Burmaster from Nielsen Online, Robin Grant of 1000heads, Ankur Shah Co-founder of Techlightenment, Will McInnes of Nixon McInnes with Jim Sterne from the Web Analytics Association in the chair. While the debate generated a little heat there was a disappointing if not unsurprising, lack of light. The discussion covered four key strands:

1. Can Social Media be measured?
2. If it can, what’s the best way to do it?
3. Do we need an industry standard set of metrics?
4. Would such metrics actually be of interest/any use to the CEO?

The debate resisted the urge to begin by defining Social Media, but many of the difficulties around measurement are rooted in its disparate nature. Counting hits on YouTube, the number of friends on MySpace or downloads of a Facebook application are at the ‘relatively straightforward’ end of the measurement spectrum with blog conversations, product reviews on forums, negative search results etc, at the other. We are all used to measuring clicks but conversations are another matter.

Will made the point early on that there is something counter-intuitive about measuring “conversations” and questioned whether automated monitoring services from the Nielsen’s of this world can attempt to do that effectively. When it comes to analysis of human interactions people are slow and computers are dumb he added. I have to agree, from personal experience in producing social media audits for FTSE 100 companies, the value of those reports are not contained in the statistics but in the commentary and analysis of the data and trends.

Numbers need to be put into context by professionals who understand the company, its products and customers and the industry it is operating in. Apparently we are going to have to wait until 2029 for machines to become as intelligent as man, so until then slow humans and dumb computers are going to need to work better together to generate meaningful insight into Social Media impact. There are no short-cuts or quick fixes, which for those wishing to sell their Social Media expertise is surely a good thing?

Whether the evaluation process would be helped by developing an industry agreed set of metrics was the next question. Some on the panel strongly advocated the sector working together to develop open standards for measurement and effectiveness. Some in the audience shared their own proprietary and largely fluffy approaches, while others argued that it would be an impossible task.

This part of the discussion for me showed the digital industry at its parochial and navel gazing worst. Given the pace at which the landscape is developing, by the point a set of metrics had been agreed (conservatively c.2011) they would have limited relevance to the current reality. My frustration was shared by others in the audience and highlighted by a questioner who hit the nail on the head in arguing that it’s the outcomes rather than the outputs of Social Media which really matter the most to organisations.

In my mind Social Media techniques need to be employed to address specific marketing and business challenges and to reach out to specific audiences. The objectives and desired outcomes of a campaign whether it’s to directly drive sales, mitigate a crisis, reshape a reputation or whatever are going to be so particular to the client concerned that developing a one-size-fits-all set of metrics really misses the point.

Ultimately, with Social Media as with so much else, it’s not measuring it that counts but what you do with it!

Further reviews of the night from Wendy McAuliffe, Stuart Bruce and Seb Mysko.

Check-out this link next week to hear the podcast of the event.

Neil McCormick at the Telegraph has written a great piece looking at the phenomenon of Will.i.am’s Yes, We Can video on YouTube in support of Barack Obama. The video has already attracted 13 million views with that number growing at a rate of 1 million hits a day.

However, Seth Finkelstein at the Guardian has a word of caution arguing that great online campaigns do not always translate into political success and it’s all too easy to conveniently forget Internet campaigns that haven’t worked. Having set the standard, Will.i.am is already spawning imitators like the No, You Can’t video below attacking John McCain.

It will be fascinating to watch whether the Republicans have the creativity and Internet-savvy to effectively retaliate.

Does the PR industry have a sufficient set of guidelines on the use of Social Media? That’s the argument which has been triggered by Edelman’s Simon Collister and Colin Farrington, DG of the CIPR. Last week Simon called on the CIPR to provide clear guidance on the ethical use of Social Media in a letter to PR Week, which elicited a response from Colin pointing out that the CIPR published its Social Media Guidelines in January 2007 and that Simon had in fact been involved in their development.

Simon has responded on his blog, remembering the guidelines do exist but pointing out that his recommendations were apparently largely ignored. Having read Simon’s detailed submission I’m a little confused. One of the main thrusts of his argument is that social media practice is little different from traditional media relations, and that the guidelines make too much of a distinction. While I would agree that there are many shared principles, I don’t see how that fits with his original plea for the CIPR to produce a clear (and presuambly discrete) set of guidelines on the use of Social Media.

There is also criticism that the Guidelines lack detail. Putting to one side that it would be an impossible task, I don’t think it’s the role of the CIPR to develop a bible on how to use Social Media with tactic-by-tactic step-by-step instructions. That ongoing and constantly evolving process is one which individual agencies and consultants need to tackle in their own way.

I think that there are two key points which need to be considered. Firstly the guidelines should be just that – guidelines which communicate the core principles which should govern the implementation of Social Media PR. Secondly, the guidelines need to be designed to be used by the entire PR industry not the relatively tiny clique of PR practitioners who have been living and breathing Social Media for years.

I regularly help to organise and attend CIPR events and I’m no longer surprised to meet PR directors for some of the UK’s largest brands who are still in the dark about the ‘rules’ of engaging with Social Media. I remember there was a rather parochial debate back in 2006 about whether a separate set of guidelines was in fact necessary for Social Media. In my experience for 90% of ordinary practitioners in 2008 it is still seen as new and discrete and they want specific guidance.

Keeping these points in mind I think the CIPR’s Social Media Guidelines are a good starting point. They don’t preach to the converted and they emphasise the importance of transparency and integrity and the unacceptability of unethical tactics such as astro-turfing and spamming.

One year on since their first publication there have been a number of significant developments which need to be considered for inclusion in the next update of the Guidelines, not least SEO. I agree completely with Simon that they really need to be formally reviewed on a six monthly basis in order to remain relevant. You can call me a radical but perhaps that development and consultation process could even be conducted via a dedicated blog where everyone with a genuine interest can easily contribute, debate and shape the outcome?

I would be the first to admit that the CIPR has been historically slow to embrace social media and there have been some serious missteps along the way, but we are by no means starting from scratch. Going back to Simon’s original point we do need a set of Social Media Guidelines which remain robust and relevant and it would benefit the PR industry for as many practitioners as possible to be involved in their ongoing development.

I would highly recommend a look at Alastair Campbell’s Cudlipp Lecture on the state of the modern media. Reading his arguments on how technology has created more media space but at the expense of quality and the herd mentality of news outlets over stories such as Madeliene McCann, I found myself nodding in agreement. There is also a rather sceptical section on citizen journalism – as follows:

“The internet gives access to news, information and consumer choices unimaginable before. On the other hand, it has further contributed to the general shortening of our attention spans. And in civic or citizen’s journalism, which sounds so benign there can surely be nothing wrong with it, it has become home to a form of journalism in which there are things constantly said and written which in old media would lead to papers and radio stations being shut down.

Working out where news and views are coming from, and what weight to attach to them, at a time when a new blog is created every second of every day, is now an essential part of the media consumer’s toolkit. It has meant an acceptance that certain basic journalistic standards which used to be taken for granted have been eroded. News can be news simply for the fact that someone reports something, regardless of veracity. Anyone can be a journalist. Anyone can be a cameraman. A rumour can be launched on a message board and find its way quickly, if interesting enough, into the US presidential election debate. It is a new landscape. I would love to know where it is all heading.”

I’ve already predicted that all things video will be big this year, so very interesting to see a new application called Zannel which is billing itself as the first ‘Instant Media Messaging’ service. The programme allows you to send photos and videos taken with your mobile via sms to appear on your Facebook page as near real-time updates on what you’re up to. There are companies offering elements of this already and a number of start-ups trying to create a platform agnostic Video Twitter. All Facebook has some more detail and highlights the applications ease of use, always the holy grail with any mobile software. Definitely one to watch…

Hillary Clinton’s lack of appeal with young voters is quickly emerging as her Achilles heel and a look at each of the candidate’s popularity on Facebook provides further evidence. Barack Obama has attracted almost 200,000 supporters compared to just 60,000 for Clinton. Last night saw the first of the ABC/Facebook debates and the accompanying US Politics Group - from where the chart below is taken - is well worth a look. The most striking feature for me is the contrast in Facebook support between the Democrats and Republicans overall. There are no shortage of young Republicans on Facebook but it appears the GOP candidates either don’t know how to attract them or bizarrely, simply don’t care.

Happy New Year dear readers. I’ve been tagged by James at 77 PR as part of Ged’s My Week in Media meme which looks at what you’ve been watching, reading, surfing and listening to. Many of the blogging great and the good have already responded. See Iain Dale, Stephen Waddington, Stuart Bruce and Stephen Davies. It’s not been a typical week but here you go…

What I’ve watched
Unlike many of the respondents so far, I can probably be classed as a telly addict and that was particularly the case over the festive period. I have a friend in the States who sent me Season 2 of Heroes just in time for the Christmas break, which has been compulsive viewing. The ratings for second series have plummeted – apparently the US audience have had difficulty with the slightly faster moving plot and multiple storylines (you can add your own punch line). In my opinion the acting and script has been ace and it’s a shame that the Hollywood writers strike has stopped the current run at episode 11 – get back to work people! I’ve also been making the most of my LoveFilm subscription with Season 6 of 24, which hasn’t so much lost the plot as failed to find a new one. Christmas movie watching consisted of The Kingdom with the brilliant Jamie Foxx, again on DVD and Pan’s Labyrinth on Film4.

What I’ve read
The US elections have become a bit of an obsession, especially as the Primary season finally gets underway. The online sites of the major US news networks have been a good starting point, particularly CNN and ABC with a bit of Fox thrown in for pure amusement. US political blogs are in a world of their own and I’ve been relying on Instapundit and Daily Kos to provide some pointers to the best. The UK’s PlayPolitcal has been fantastic at gathering together the TV and YouTube campaign broadcasts being put out by the contenders – including the controversial Mike Hukabee Christmas message, complete with subliminal floating crucifix. The online campaigns being run by most of the candidates have taken centre stage and it’s going to be fascinating to watch the boundaries of online campaigning being pushed to the limits once the proper Presidential race gets underway. There will be plenty of lessons for the PR industry. My money is on Obama.In terms of reading things you actually hold, it’s been Seth Godin’s The Dip, on the train between London and Leamington Spa – highly recommend it, especially if your contemplating a new year change of career.

So the bloated festive season draws in and a year of plotting and future-proof strategies look to be falling into place, the world must now wait until Jan 2nd to see how things will begin to shake out in the media world, 2008 billed to be the big year for social media, Internet TV, and traditional media players sinking or swimming.

This post will address one of those issues: how and where News Corp goes from here. With Dow Jones under its belt Murdoch has the green light to change the landscape for newspaper publishers and online media again for good, and it’s just a matter of time (rumour has it end January, about the same time as the UK government will rule on what News Corp will have to do about it’s stake in broadcaster ITV) until WSJ online is freed up. That whole side of the business will play itself out, but for News Corp, it’s just the starting point and it will take most of 2008 to get all the building blocks in place. So rivals have a little time to get in on the act - and will need to before it’s too late. Next on the agenda for News Corp is rumoured to be the video gaming world domination - but is there anything in that?

In any case we have a US election to look forward to and at the moment it’s all wide open. It will be interesting to see how things have changed since Bush’s victory and will change beyond the end of next year.

6. PCTV wins the battle with IPTV
Early next year we are likely to see both 02 and Orange join the battle with BT Vision and others to displace the Sky, Virgin and Freeview set-top boxes in our living rooms. As they spend big to each attract at most a few hundred thousand subscribers, millions of consumers will instead top up their TV viewing online. The implications of the Kangaroo initiative, which will bring together the on-demand services from the BBC, ITV and Channel 4 shouldn’t be underestimated. Kangaroo has the potential to bring PCTV into the mainstream via a single application and EPG. But it will need to quickly become compatible with all those Vista enabled PCs people will have got for Christmas.

In fact one of 2007’s most exciting moves for both online broadcasting and social networking, was Bebo’s landmark deal with the likes of the BBC, Sky, Channel 4 and Endemol to allow users to embed TV programmes in their profiles. A fundamental shift in taking TV to specific communities rather than trying to attract specific communities to TV. The implications of the deal for much hyped but little used services like Joost should be keeping their investors awake at night.

Finally, as millions stream TV content to their desktops, the spotlight will again turn to the performance levels of broadband providers. Download limits and throttling connections will be exposed as the disingenuous excuses for poor service they really are. ISPs and telecoms companies will need to think carefully about where they direct their infrastructure investment, or face a very public consumer backlash.

7. DIY Social Networking
Want to create your own social networking site? Of course you do and so will everyone else, well maybe. As I wrote recently vertical social networks are gathering momentum. With so many categories currently un-catered for, it will be a boom year for the software companies providing off-the-shelf solutions. Many firms will also see the benefits of creating their own social networks as a replacement or as an alternative to expensive and cumbersome corporate intranets and extranets. Whether they will give their staff enough time to use them is of course another question.

8. Traditional media decline accelerates
David Crow at The Business has a great analysis on the seismic shifts in the media landscape this year and the likely developments in 2008. To reverse the general declines in newspaper circulations, more national newspapers will need to follow the example of the Daily Telegraph and invest in their digital operations. The amalgamation of the BBC’s offline and online news operations could lead to a decline in both the quantity and quality of online content, allowing other news organisations to catch-up. The Wall Street Journal liberated from a hefty subscription by Rupert Murdoch, will also be a new force to be reckoned with. Crow also looks ahead to the growth of DAB radio with Channel 4 launching a number of stations to compete directly with the BBC. He concludes by saying, “The firms that succeed in 2008 will be those that focus on the needs, desires and interests of their consumer in the contemporary marketplace – and discard their archaic, elitist prejudices born of a different era. For those still referred to as the “traditional” media, 2008 will be the make or break year.” Couldn’t agree with him more!

9. The Press Release’s condition becomes terminal
In response to the traditional media going increasingly digital, the demand from journalists for well packaged multimedia content will be stronger than ever before. The SMNR and Social Media Newsroom will become the industry standard for modern communication with press and bloggers. The days of four pages of double-spaced waffle will thankfully be nigh.

Google struggles with the forces of darkness

Once one of the most loved of internet brands, ordinary internet users will begin to reassess their warm relationship with Google. As with its recent announcement to obliterate Wikipedia, the brand will behave in a way that challenges Microsoft for its evil empire crown. While doing little to damage revenues at first, the loss of public goodwill will prompt a harder line from the competition authorities and legislators, curtailing the extent of Google’s long-term growth. In 2008, while its takeover of Skype gets through, its hostile bid for Apple is seen as a step too far.

2007 has been an amazing year personally. Leaving the warm bosom of agency life was a difficult decision but I’ve since been lucky enough to work with some amazing clients, agencies and practitioners on some really ground breaking digital PR campaigns. It’s been a journey into the future of PR and the future looks very bright indeed. So what do I think 2008 will bring?

1. The Year of the Widget
I have been spending a lot of time over the past couple of months working with some great developers on the design of widgets. I’m not talking about Zombies here, but creative, engaging, viral and above all value-added applications which support wider PR campaigns. The integration of widgets into the armoury of digital PR tactics will really take off in 2008 as developments like OpenSocial improve the economics and allow single applications to access larger audiences across multiple social networking sites. Beyond their role in PR, the widget will continue to change the shape of online advertising, as they move onto the desktop and mobiles – this recent article in Adweek is well worth a read to get up to speed.

2. Do you Vlog?
Video blogging will be one of the biggest tech trends of 2008. This will be driven by high profile bloggers such as Iain Dale experimenting with the medium as well as new platforms like Seesmic and Magnify. Another driver will be next generation mobile handsets with better quality in-built video cameras combined with falling data costs enabling vlogging on the move. It could even capture the media zeitgeist from Facebook, speaking of which…

3. Facebook media backlash
A bit like Jade Goody, having devoted acres of coverage building it up, 2008 will see the media try to bring Facebook down. The Beacon disaster has seen the US press sharpening its knives and the shift in sentiment will no doubt cross the Atlantic. Despite the less favourable coverage, Facebook will continue to grow and members will spend more and more time on the site. Reports of Facebook’s imminent demise by a few over excited commentators are I feel greatly exaggerated. The positives that make the site so great still far out weigh the disadvantages. The Beacon saga has shown Mark Zuckerberg that he stops listening to users concerns at his peril – I don’t think he will be stupid enough to make the same mistakes twice. Removing the negatives in terms of poor data protection and privacy, overly intrusive commercialisation and the small but growing volume of application related spam will need to be his top priorities for 2008.

4. Jumping on the social media bandwagon
Johnny come lately PR agencies will continue to jump on the social media bandwagon. Expect PR Week to be full of more stories of traditional PR agencies appointing heads of social media and creating specialist divisions.

5. A high-profile PR account shifts to a digital agency
The fundamental shifts in the PR industry will come into sharp focus when a high-profile client shifts its PR account to a Spannerworks-esque agency with digital and search at its core. There will be much debate and navel gazing. A few weeks later agencies respond by – yes you’ve guessed it – doing more of number 4.